Investment Strategies for the New Year

        As the trading year comes to an end the Fed has decided to start tapering, cutting down the bond buying program from $85 billion to $75 billion a month. The news that the Federal Reserve believes that the U.S economy is strong enough to warrant less support has sent markets up over 393 points in the last week.
      If you were amongst the traders who has seen their portfolios increase tremendously in the last few trading days congratulations, now though is the time to start planning your investment strategy for next year.
      In light of the Fed tapering announcement many former bears who were predicting a falling stock market in 2014 have changed their minds and instead forecast a slower but gradual increase in the stock market. The number that appears most often is an increase of between 10-15%.
      In my opinion this analysis is correct, the stock market will continue to rise through 2014 but at a far slower rate. In this case many large blue chips like General Electric and Microsoft will continue to see their stock prices rise. What investors have to be wary of are the momentum stocks of this year, companies like Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, and Yahoo, companies whose stocks are overvalued and who face the possibility of becoming the laggards of 2014.
So if you plan on investing into the stock market in 2014 avoid investing into flashy tech companies like twitter who are part of a new social media bubble and instead focus on companies who are part of laggard industries who have trailed behind the rest of the market.
      The industry that appears to show the most opportunity going into 2014 is energy. Energy stocks are only up around 11% this year while the broad market is up almost 30%, coupled with the fact that with shale oil the U.S is about to become the largest energy producer in the world, and like I said last week, Mexico is about to open up its oil market to outside competition. The seeds are set to launch a boom in the U.S energy market and companies like Chevron and Exxon Mobil who are trading below the market average stand to benefit the most. With this in mind I Suggest to start filling your portfolios with energy stocks.
      Last week I provided a short term analysis on Chevron which recommended by call options on the stock, this short term analysis proved to be right with Chevron up 2.5% in the last week. If you bought options at the price I suggested (which was 119) you would of yielded at least a 50% return on your investment.
      If you missed that remarkable opportunity here's another one. After reading an article in the Wall Street Journal (written by Mike Esterl) about how Tobacco makers Philip Morris and Altria Group have teamed up to market electronic cigarettes, I saw an opportunity in the stock of the two cigarette giants.
      It's easy to dismiss an investment into tobacco companies for many reasons, amongst which are increasingly heavy taxation, increasing regulations and lower cigarette volumes. All these concerns are well founded but in the short term Philip Morris and Altria stock provide a unique opportunity to profit. The joint agreement between the two tobacco giants to market electronic cigarettes positions the two to take control of the small but growing alternate tobacco market,
      Taking dominant market share in the e-cigarette market would no doubt set an upward trend in the stock of the two companies, and generate high returns to investors who buy in now.

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Brief Investment Tips and Opportunities

         This week I have decided to try something different. Instead of writing a general overview of the market as I have been doing, instead I am going to give my analysis on a particular stock and the investment opportunities I believe it presents.
         The stock that I believe presents the most opportunity this week is Chevron (CVX) I have had my eye on this company for a while, and I have noticed patterns in the stock which have it rise to around 125 a share and then fall to below 118 and then rise back up.
          Using Put options I have been able to make an almost 50% profit in under a week, as the stock fell below 120. If you missed out on the downward trend of the stock this week, don't worry, next week as the stock falls to below 118 you could buy up call options on the stock, preferably call options offering to buy the stock at 119 or at a price slightly higher then the market price. Or if options are not your thing you could simply buy Chevron shares at 118. Either way you could profit as the stock rebounds and rises above 120-122.
          Using this strategy you could easily make a large profit just in time for the new year. This is a short term play for those trying to make a quick buck and use the profit to buy your loved ones a nice gift for the holidays.
          For those of you reading this who are not willing to risk your money in a short term investment into options, at 118 Chevron is the perfect stock to buy and hold through next year. At 118 the company will be trading at just 9 times earnings, which is way below the market average of 15. Also Chevron will no doubt be profiting from the shale energy boom in the U.S which would make the country the leading oil producer in 2014. Besides the attractive valuation and energy boom, Chevron is part of an energy sector that has been dramatically underperforming the rest of the stock market.
           Chevron stock is up only 11.2% this year, compared to the S&P 500 which is up over 25%. While the rest of the market is overheated and in need of a correction Chevron and other energy stocks seem to be in a perfect position to rise through next year, especially as countries such as Mexico open up their oil markets to outside competition.
            These factors point to a boom in energy stocks, so my analysis  is to buy up shares in various oil companies like Chevron now , and watch them rise through next year.



PLEASE POST COMMENTS ON HOW YOU LIKED THIS WEEKS ENTRY SPECIFICALLY THE NEW FORMAT.

I WILL BE POSTING ONCE EVERY WEEKEND ABOUT MY OPINIONS ON THE MARKET AND VARIOUS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES I HAVE FOUND.

IF YOU LIKED THIS ARTICLE FEEL FREE TO SPREAD THE WORD SINCE I AM CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SOLELY THROUGH WORD OF MOUTH

A New Bubble in Virtual Currency?

                 Five day sell off followed by a massive comeback on Friday, Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate and the positive jobs report. What do these things mean to you and your money?

                Let’s be honest, it has been a tough and painful week, if it was not for the great jobs report that came out Friday morning sending the market up an astounding 173 points, the Dow would have ended down over 218 points for the week. Luckily if you read my article from last week where I suggested buying put options on major retailers you would have ended the week with a profit.

-          Wal-Mart was down 1.24% for the week.

-          Sears was down almost 25% this week

-          J.C Penny was down over 18%.

-          Amazon was down 2.73%

Wise bets against any of the companies above would have yielded immense profits but let’s not talk about what happened last week let’s talk about what’s going to happen next week. This week was obviously a sell off week, and a much needed one at that. The Dow closed up for 8 straight weeks, and I hate to say it needed to cool down. The very positive jobs report on Friday though stopped the selloff in its tracks; un-employment fell to 7% from 7.3%. The economy added 203 thousand jobs in November, blowing past estimates of 183 thousand.

Unfortunately this positive jobs report might be a double edged sword considering that it might cause the Federal Reserve to start tapering its bond buying program in early 2014. The good news is that Wall Street appears to have gotten over its moodiness and forget the fears of an early taper that have plagued the markets since talk of them began.

In my opinion the sooner the Fed begins tapering the better, and hopefully when they do start to taper it might cause a much needed correction in the market. Now I said in one of my last articles, that although the markets might see a sell off as early as January or February next year the companies that will be hit the hardest will be the ones that have seen their stock surge way past the average of the market without growing their revenues in any substantial way, and the companies that currently see their market evaluation out pace their revenue growth.

Such companies are found, mostly in internet, and specifically social media although companies such as Netflix, Tesla and Yahoo are also amongst the companies I figure will be hard hit in a market correction.

Now this might make me sound like a bear but in truth in the long term I am a bull all the way, I have faith that the U.S economy will continue to recover and that after a correction and the popping of several specific bubbles the markets will surge to well beyond their current all-time highs.

What I am really interested in discussing though is the new virtual currency bitcoin. If you do not know what bitcoin is, it is a currency that exists solely in cyber space, in essence bitcoin represents the future of all currencies. With that said though the price of bitcoin went from $10 in January to over $1,200 dollars in December (before falling 20% to786.40 after China announced that its central bank will no longer accept Bitcoin as a source of payment and that it will not insure any transaction made with Bitcoin)

Bitcoin’s massive surge in price is mostly due to speculation, may I remind people that the cause of every financial bubble is over speculation. With that in mind it is easy to call Bitcoin the perfect bubble, comparable to that of tulips in the 1600’s and the Internet bubble in the 1990’s. My major grievance about Bitcoin is that it is not backed by anything! Nothing the currency really doesn’t have any substance to it. This along with the over speculation in Bitcoin makes me want to discourage any people from buying it.

Off course the second I came up with this analysis I started looking for a way to bet against the Bitcoin bubble. Unfortunately my search proved discouraging; in order to bet against bit coin you must convert your money into bitcoin and invest in certain Bitcoin exchanges that are few and far between. In essence if you want to bet against bitcoin you must first invest into it at its current price.

But in the end virtual currency is the future and although I do not think Bitcoin is the currency that will replace all others I do think that in the near future our world’s major currencies such as the Dollar and the Euro will be configured to the same virtual cyber space as Bitcoin exists in now.    

I would ask that if you may please leave comments about how you liked the article and any suggestions you have about how to make it better. Also if you enjoyed this article I would ask if you please spread the word since currently I am advertising only through word of mouth.

 

 

 

I will be posting an article every weekend and looking back at the political and economic events of that week, both personally impacting events and suggestions about my opinions on the future of the market

Buying into the Holiday Craze? Not So Fast

             It’s been a slow week with the stock market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and a shortened day on Friday, but next week could potentially yield large profits.

                All eyes are on the retailers this week, with Black Friday weekend (the number one shopping weekend of the year) drawing to close the pace of the Stock market is going to be determined on how good the results of this weekend were. And unfortunately for those of you holding stocks in retailers like Walmart and Sears I am afraid you are going to be disappointed. Most retailers have been gaming on a good holiday season (especially J.C Penny) unfortunately current numbers show that the holiday season is going to be very slow.  

                The National Retail Federation reported that shoppers, on average, spent 4% less over the holiday weekend then last year. This marks the first decline in consumer spending since 2009, this will come as a shock to most people, considering that with the rising stock market and rising home and car sales most investors thought that retailers were going to have a strong holiday season.  This false feeling sent shares of retailers up, which means it’s the perfect time to purchase Put options on various retail stocks, specifically those of Walmart, J.C Penny, and Sears.

                But before I get into analyzing the weaknesses of the above companies lets discuss why the holiday season has begun so slowly. With the improving economy people should have more free cash to spend on holiday shopping, right? WRONG! It appears that this year consumers are more interested in buying big ticket items such as cars and houses (this may benefit car companies like Ford and GM) this shift to buying big ticket items does cut into how much customers spend at retail stores but what is more destructive to retailers offering bargain prices during the holidays, is that consumers are buying responsibly.

                The whole point of offering large sales at retail stores is that it lures consumers into spending large amounts of money on not only things they need but things they don’t, such as a new T.V, extra presents for their kids, new clothes. This way consumers leave behind twice as much money at retail stores than usual, retailers love this because it instills in peoples mind that they saved money when in truth they saved nothing, they just spent more money than they ever needed to and increased the retailers profit.

                That is the concept of Black Friday, unfortunately for retailers people do not have that extra dollar to throw away on an extra gift or T.V, because that person already used a lot of their free money to buy a new car or a new house. So what happens when consumers feel like they have less money to spend? The answer is they only buy what they need, at the discount prices retailers are offering them. This is what is happening to retailers this holiday season, and it will seriously cut into their profits.

                Another thorn in traditional retailers sides is the continued growth of online retailers and the increased popularity of Cyber Monday (where online retailers offer bargain prices and huge to rival those of traditional retailers) While consumers are spending less money at retailers like Walmart they are spending more money on online stores like Amazon and EBay.  

                ComScore, an internet tracking company reported that online spending was up 17% from last year, and IBM reported that shopping from mobile devices such as smart phones and Tablets jumped 40%. Of course traditional brick and mortar stores have their own online sales; they have nothing on large internet retailers like Amazon.

                Now the numbers do not lie, traditional retailers are losing ground to their online competitors, and this week it is clear that retail stocks will fall, now the question becomes how to capitalize on it. I have chosen to buy weekly Put options on particular retail stocks such as Walmart and J.C Penny, (Put options are options to sell a stock at a certain price, if the stock price falls the value of the options goes up: go to http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/23/investools-options-ge-in_wh_0823investools_inl.html, if you want to learn more about option trading)

                By buying Put options on these large brick and mortar, traditional retailers I am basically betting that the stock in these companies will fall. As for online retailers, by all accounts they should be a good buy, but many like Amazon and Groupon are overvalued and unprofitable. But if you are interested in buying stock in online retailers, I would wait until next year when this buying craze on the market ends and a much needed correction occurs. This way you could buy into companies like Amazon at a cheaper price, because without a doubt online retail is the future.

 I would ask that if you may please leave comments about how you liked the article and any suggestions you have about how to make it better. Also if you enjoyed this article I would ask if you please spread the word since currently I am advertising only through word of mouth.

 

I will be posting an article every weekend and looking back at the political and economic events of that week, both personally impacting events and suggestions about my opinions on the future of the market

Markets are Overheated: Find out Which Ones

All you see on CNBC these days are people arguing about whether or not the stock market is overheated and heading for a massive correction. I am here to tell you why it’s not.

               Now off course some sectors and some companies have become massively overvalued and are bubbles that will pop. But in general most companies are still trading at a fair value, and others are trading below what they're fair market should be, for example, Apple (after having a terrible year on the market) has become a cheap stock, also Microsoft continues to trade at just 14 times earnings (below the average of 15).

               While I’m on the topic of undervalued companies, take a look at
the auto industry, Ford and General Motors trade at well below 15 times earnings and have seen profits and revenues increase dramatically throughout the year. But no one seems to care about these huge corporate automotive giants, the hottest stock in the auto industry this year was Tesla Motors.

               Now Tesla has been in the spotlight recently as 3 all electric Tesla Model S sedans have burst into flames prompting the federal Government to investigate the safety of the car and possible ordering a recall. But  if you are invested in Tesla that is the least of your
worries considering the car has passed all safety test with flying colors, what investors do have to worry about is Tesla’s evaluation and its miniscule profits.

Tesla stock has been soaring all year rising over 500% at its height of 194.50 a share. The catalyst for this rapid growth was Tesla’s first profitable Quarter, which was a big feat for the electric car maker but did warrant the company's market price soaring to $14.8 billion (as of Friday). Tesla is a classic bubble and I am glad to say has finally begun to pop, the stock is down almost 30% in the last month.

My suggestion if you are currently a stockholder in Tesla is to take your money and run, and if you are considering an investment into Tesla I would hold off until the stock falls to around $70-80 a share which might be sooner than you think.

Tesla Motors is not the only bubble out on the market a few more are Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, Yahoo,
and Twitter. Any of these companies sound familiar? They should besides the fact that all these companies are well established brand names all them have also seen their stock soar through the roof over the last year.  

When people worry about a potential market correction they should not worry about stable blue chip components like General Electric and Qualcomm but rather worry about momentum stocks like Netflix.

Let talk about several of these companies, lets take Yahoo for example. Yahoo has seen its stock rise 96.5% this year as investors respond to new Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer's attempts to turn around the struggling internet giant. Truth be told, she is doing a good job, a new logo new investments, a new image, Yahoo seems to be getting a new makeover, but lets take a look under the surface.

What you find does not justify the rapidly rising
stock price, earnings have been flat, and the company's main revenue stream (internet ads on its search browser) continue to erode. What Yahoo does have going for it is its investments in a number of new Tech startups (such as Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, which is planning to go public) that may produce additional revenue for the company later on, but for the time being Yahoo is far from being “turned around” and my recommendation for the company is to avoid buying. Mayer might be able to turn the company around in the long term but not before the company experiences a massive correction.

To emphasize point only a few sectors and
stocks are overvalued enough to be called bubbles and are endanger of experiencing a correction. The most bubbly sector in my opinion is the technology sector and specifically internet based companies such as Facebook, Yahoo, and Amazon, as well as Twitter and Netflix.

I would ask that if you may please leave comments about how you liked the article and any suggestions you have about how to make it better. Also if you enjoyed this article I would ask if you please spread the word since currently I am advertising only through word of mouth.

 

I will be posting an article every weekend and looking back at the political and economic events of that week, both personally impacting events and suggestions about my opinions on the future of the market

Profitable Week? Keep the Momentum Going With these Investments!

An end to several weeks of earnings, Janet Yellen’s senate confirmation, the Dow and S&P 500 at record heights, and a profitable week that wiped out all losses from the previous three.

This week had proven exiting to say the least. The future Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, announced this week during her senate hearings that the Federal Reserve will not be ending its $85 billion bond buying program for at least another few months. This announcement on Thursday sent the Dow up 85 points to end at a new record high, alongside my own portfolio.

Yellen has been a favorite to take Ben Bernanke’s position as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street believes that she will continue Bernanke’s loose monetary policies and even more importantly keep pumping cash into the U.S economy.

Personally I think Yellen is the perfect women for the job, for two reasons. First she has the experience; she has served as the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve since 2010, before that she had served as the president and C.E.O of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. These credentials clearly show that she has the business talent to guide the U.S through an economic recovery, but more importantly she had been Ben Bernanke’s right hand for years. This is a great thing since it is not the time to completely shake up leadership at the Fed, considering the fact that the U.S is in the middle of recovering from the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Janet Yellen’s senate confirmation did send stocks to record highs but to me personally one event more than any other impacted my stock portfolio. That event was the Justice Department reaching a settlement with U.S Airways and American Airlines allowing those companies to merge into the largest Airline in the world.

The decision was announced by the two airlines on Wednesday, and in response sent shares of American Airlines through the roof (stock soared over 25%). Personally I had hoped that the merger would not go through, this would have caused a selloff in American Airline stock which I could have then acquired at cheap prices, allowing me to exploit the Airlines low evaluation, growing profits and resurgence. I also was very surprised that the merger passed since although it is great for the Airline industry as a whole it is terrible for consumers, who are now going to have to deal with rising airfare and expensive fees. But I cannot change the decision, all I could do is accept it, and at the very least it made stock in other Airline companies go up.

Now that American Airlines is merging with U.S Air what’s next for the stock in the bankrupt airline? The answer to that is simple, it will continue going up, currently the company is undervalued, and I had bought shares in American on Thursday (just in time to see the stock fall on Friday). In any case as soon as the news that a settlement was reached allowing the merger to go through I began to look into investing into the New American Airlines (which will be listed on NASDAQ under the symbol AAL).

What I came up with led me to decide to not invest into the new American. There were a few reasons why, the first one was that I saw the struggles United Continental had after its merger. The newly merged Airline had trouble integrating two different fleets into one, and profits suffered as a result. Another reason not to invest into the New American is because traditional carriers such as United and the New American are rapidly losing ground to smaller low budget airlines, like Jet Blue and Southwest. These low budget airlines are cheaper to operate, more attractive to fliers and as a result are gaining a greater share of the airline market.

                These low budget airlines also got a lot more attractive after details of the settlement were released. It appears that the price of the merger between Americana and U.S air came at the cost of selling slots in Reagan National Airport in Washington D.C to low budget competitors, Jet Blue and Southwest. This was one reason the justice department wanted to ground the merger in the first place, the government did not want a single airline controlling almost 70% of the slots in a key airport. But in selling these slots the New American had empowered low budget competitors in Washington D.C.

                The New American Airlines seems to face a number of large problems that in my opinion, will compromise its position on the market. With strong competition from small low budget airlines increasing I would strongly recommend avoiding stock in the New American. A better alternative would be investing into a low budget Airline like Jet Blue, Southwest, or Spirit. But if you are looking to put your money into a large Airline that will compete internationally with the new American, I would recommend investing into Delta (I am currently invested in Delta Airlines myself). Delta Airlines is expanding in all directions, purchasing slots in JFK Airport in N.Y.C, buying a 49% stake of Virgin Atlantic Airlines, and most importantly reorganizing itself as a low budget carrier.

                Low budget airlines are a fantastic investment at the moment but if you are looking for short term investment opportunities I would suggest investing into Entertainment Arts (EA).

                Electronic Arts is a company valued at over $7.2 billion that manufactures games for gaming consoles such as Sony’s Play station and Microsoft’s Xbox. In addition to producing games for PC’s, networking sites (such as Facebook) and mobile devices. What originally attracted me to this company was that its stock had seen a sell off on Friday of over 7.32%, which was another hit in a serious of sell offs that had driven the stock down 10% over the last 3 months. Now I don’t play video games very often so I normally I would avoid buying into the gaming industry but with the new generation consoles coming out, such as the Play station 4 and Xbox 1 I saw an opportunity to exploit the sale of these consoles without betting on which one would sell better.

                Buying into a company that produces games for both consoles opens the door for immense profits over the next few months, since consumers who buy a new console will be forced to buy a whole new set of games to service them. This tied to the recent sell off in the stock seems like a golden opportunity to invest.

                In the end this week was very profitable but over the next few weeks investments in low budget airlines and Entertainment Arts could send your portfolio as well as mine to blistering new heights.

 

 

I would ask that if you may please leave comments about how you liked the article and any suggestions you have about how to make it better. Also if you enjoyed this article I would ask if you please spread the word since currently I am advertising only through word of mouth.

 

 

 

 I will be posting an article every weekend and looking back at the political and economic events of that week, both personally impacting events and suggestions about my opinions on the future of the market

 

Take Advantage of cheap Evaluations Now!

                Markets end Friday higher, marking the 5^th straight week they had done so, but if you’re like your portfolio has plateaued after the dizzying gains of October. But don’t worry there is still plenty of opportunity out there.

                Last week I made recommendations on two stocks that I thought had a decent chance of revitalizing your portfolio, Melco Crown Entertainment and Capital One. Both stocks ended the week higher but truth be told neither saw the explosive gains I had hoped.

                Melco Crown is an Asian based casino company whose stock I thought would surge on Tuesday after the company announced earnings. So I bought the stock on Monday at 33.72 a share and waited for it to shoot up. 3^rd Quarter earnings were not that bad, revenue for the third quarter of 2013 was $1.252 billion, a sizeable increase over last years $1.01 billion. Total profit also increased to $179.4 million, or $0.33 per share, from $104.9 million, or $0.19 per share.

                It was these type of earnings that I hoped would send my stock up yet it didn’t shares were down .59% on Tuesday, following the news. But the stock jumped 3.37% on Wednesday and just as I was starting to think that my gamble was paying off when Thursday came around and proved to be the worst day I had ever had on the Stock market. Melco Crown stock fell 5%, adding on to the massive losses I took on Qualcomm and Spirit stock that day. The stock recovered slightly on Friday gaining 2.9%, and I managed to end the week with a slight gain on Melco Crown stock but these gains were light and insignificant, falling short of my expectations.   

                My recommendation for Melco Crown stock is to avoid it, the company is massively overvalued, trading at over 51 times earnings and the stock has the volatility of a penny stock. If you are looking at investing into casino’s there are a number of better options such as Las Vegas Sands and MGM.

                Another stock I hoped would revitalize my portfolio was Capital One. I bought this stock at 69.58 a share, and truly this stock has been flat all week rising only .17%. But this should not discourage you, considering this stock is undervalued and unlike Melco Crown not prone to volatility. My recommendation for Capital One stock is to buy and hold, considering that eventually the stock will rise to fit into the company’s evaluation.

                In the beginning of this post I mentioned that there are still a number of opportunities out there to make money, and apparently some people saw Twitter as an opportunity.

                Twitters market debut on Thursday was the number one story on the market that day, and it was a resounding success. Stock was initially offered at $26 a share and closed 72% higher at above $44 a share. But this market debut gives Twitter an evaluation of over $22 billion, why does a company that has not made a cent in the last three years deserve an evaluation of over $20 billion? The answer to that is simple, it doesn’t.

                The stock is tremendously over valued and the stock sunk 7.2% on Friday, after a number of analysts on Wall Street downgraded the stock from buy to sell, and many voiced their concern that the stock was overvalued.

                My recommendation for Twitter is to avoid buying into social media in general, but if you are set on buying into Twitter stock at least wait a few weeks until the stocks drops to the mid 30’s, at least at this price you might benefit from a rally later on.

                In my opinion much better alternative to Twitter is Ford. Unlike Twitter Ford is undervalued, trading at just under 12 times earnings (less than the market average of 15). I bought Ford stock on Wednesday at 16.91 a share, which was a mistake since the stock fell over 2% on Thursday alongside everything else, but recovered somewhat on Friday, and I’m still currently in the red on this investment but even so Ford is a recovering company with good numbers and a cheap evaluation. So my evaluation for this stock is to buy and hold.

 

I would ask that if you may please leave comments about how you liked the article and any suggestions you have about how to make it better. Also if you enjoyed this article I would ask if you please spread the word since currently I am advertising only through word of mouth.

 

 

 

I will be posting an article every weekend and looking back at the political and economic events of that week, both personally impacting events and suggestions about my opinions on the future of the market